NFL offseason turns it's gears to stage two as the noise meter is building up for the opening of free agency on March 13th. The free agency market is close to being finalized as teams have just a week to franchise a player (March 5th deadline). We know Tee Higgins won't be available after the Bengals tagged the stud-wideout, expect a few more big names to face a tag in the coming days with the deadline nearing. I'll breakdown the options the Bengals now have with tagging Higgins, the current free-agent market, prior to any shocking releases or tags, as well as team to-dos, Fields/Bears, Salary Cap update, and my appealing transactions that should happen.
After a record breakin' year of revenue, the NFL announced the 2024 Salary Cap to be set at $255.4M- a whomping $30.6M increase from last season. Since 2011's $120.4M threshold, the NFL Salary Cap has more than doubled. The pandemic and massive media revenue in 2023, defines this increase. Big news for the clubs.
The increase does wonders for the front offices that worked their numbers right the past five years. Rather being cheapskates, or good at budgeting, several teams can really take advantage of what should be a loaded free agent class this spring. Here are the current top 6 in available cap space:
Only seven teams currently have negative cap available. A few of those seven clubs can change that by making notable cuts to players with a large dead cap... and no Denver, that doesn't apply to you and Russell Wilson for pete sake! It does apply to the 29th ranked Chargers as they have some big decisions to make in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see how each team handles the news of the cap increase. I expect some noise to ring off in the next week with the franchise tag deadline looming. Teams now know exactly what to spend.
The salary cap now being set also locks in the non-exclusive franchise tag amounts for each position for the new year. As I already addressed, Tee Higgins has been tagged by the Bengals, stumping him from testing free agency this off-season. The tag amount for receivers, if Higgins signs his tender, will pay $21.8M out to Higgins if he remains on the tag with the Bengals going into the upcoming campaign. Here is the amount for each position:
The $21.8M salary for Higgins (still needs to sign) ranks him first in Base Salary among receivers and third in total cash for next season. Solid money, but you already know Higgins aims to go much-much higher. Now with the position tag amounts set, teams will take the week to make their moves. A few of the top notable impending free agents in L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylon Johnson, and Josh Allen could face gettin' the tag before the deadline. Which would shake up the market before the gates even open.
Bengals tagging Higgins was an absolute must make move. Cincy forces what would have been a top name free agent off the market, giving the Bengals a chance to now either trade Higgins, extend him, or wait out a "prove it year" to face this stage again come next year. You absolutely couldn't let him just walk to free agency. Must get something for him, or keep him as an important piece to the championship contending puzzle. Great move to buy some time, but they need to make a decision sooner than later. Decision time, decision time.
Cincy has until the July 15th deadline to agree to a long-term deal with Higgins. Bengals should avoid extending Higgins to a top-10 or higher contract among receivers. Not saying don't extend him. That option still has value as Higgins and Chase is a duo to invest on, but don't open the vault for Higgins if his demands are high. Let someone else pay him as a number one, if you aren't going to play him as a number one. Bottom line. Regardless, you don't allow him to leave the franchise without getting anything back in exchange. Leaving them to the decision to trade him; possibly during the draft, or by the mid-season deadline; or to extend him for a reasonable price. I wouldn't rush a draft day trade unless something fascinating hits the line. Play this out if the contract talks are close. If the demands are way too high off the bat, and throughout furthered discussions, then you dish him before the July-extend deadline. The tag gives the Bengals leverage. Great first move. Up next is the Chiefs and Bears.
I would be shocked if the Bears and Chiefs are quick to make Jaylon Johnson and L'Jarius Sneed two of the highest paid corners after each of their breakout seasons in '23. Both cats had remarkable seasons, don't get me twisted, but this is the NFL and more importantly, this is business. The clubs would be idiotic to open the bank based off ONE great season. You just can't do it, I don't care about the cap increase. This is a long-term industry. Must think bigger picture, and bigger picture here is having Johnson and Sneed prove their breakout seasons can be repeated. By no means do you let those two young players walk out the door to free agency. Sneed is worth extending right away a bit more than Johnson. Both teams need to sit their guys down this week and work on an extension. If demands are high, you tag them to buy more time or create their prove it year. As a football fan, I would love to see these guys become free agents, as they will be two of the highest bid players on the market and would elevate any defense, but the Bears and Chiefs need to play smart front office play. The next few days will decide a lot as the free agent market is set to open.
We are set for some fireworks starting March 15th! Quite the list of impending free agents and the list could get even larger depending on future cuts as teams work their cap. If no other franchise tags get dropped, we could see three of the game's best defenders last season jump ship to new teams. We also have quite the RB market and a slew of defensive pieces ready for paydays and more responsibilities. Check out some of the notable players:
That's just the top names, we have a solid 50 plus players hittin' the open market that can be valuable pieces. As I examine the impending free agents and look at the available cap space for each club, I have several thoughts and opinions on what teams should do in the upcoming stage of the off-season. I'll give those opinions and breakdown some of the top names by tiers. First, lets talk about the tail-backs that make up a legendary market.
We have arguably the best market of running-backs in free agency history, led by Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Saquon Barkley, there is 8-10 quality to high ceiling talents available including three top backs. I'm talkin' high quality. I'm talkin' Gus Edwards, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, high quality guys who elevate any club's offense. I am excited to see where these cats land. There should be some big new faces, in new places.
The four star-backs in Barkley, Henry, Swift, and Jacobs give off the most appeal. The most excitement. Henry may crack 30, but he's not a normal 30-year old back cha heard. The King had another excellent season puttin' up 1100/12- he can still be a valuable piece for an offense. Several teams should have interest in his services for the right price. I see some appeal of Henry in Houston, Minnesota, and Baltimore. Ravens being the most appealing. If they decide not to retain Gus Edwards; Henry could be quite the replacement. Losing Greg Roman would hurt a bit less if the Ravens can plug in an experienced game-wrecker like Henry to keep a potent rushing attack around Lamar Jackson. The best fit for Henry in my opinion. I like Houston, but I am unsure on how Slowik can use Henry. Texans not retaining Devin Singletary would leave a big hole that Henry can fill. Stroud with an even better rushing attack could go a long way. I still like the move to Baltimore a lot more. How about Barkley and Jacobs!?
Seeing both those guys in different jerseys next season could be a real-real thing. Las Vegas needs to push hard in retaining Jacobs to spoil our excitement. I like the Luke Getsy hire as OC for the Raiders, but mostly because the original image had Jacobs in the picture. Getsy could be great in Vegas with Jacobs as his lead back, and Jacobs could feast himself back to elite form after a lackluster prove it year on the tag. His asking price will be interesting after the season he had. I wonder if his price has changed from this time last season. That's going to play a vile part in him returning to Vegas. If he doesn't, well there are several interesting landing spots. I would love to see him team up with Justin Fields in Chicago, take Barkley's spot in New York, or travel to the desert to run the rock for the Cardinals. Barkley has a similar market, but the Bills would be the best fit for him, in my opinion.
I know James Cook eclipsed 1K on the ground and made the Pro Bowl after a solid campaign, but Barkley would offer Josh Allen and that offense a lot more as the feature back. Cook/Barkley would be a damn good tandem in the backfield for the Bills. Unfortunately, I can only dream on that tandem; thanks to Buffalo being dead last in available cap ($-37M). I like Barkley to the Bears even more than Jacobs. What an upgrade to the offense for Chicago if you insert Barkley. If not the Bears, then the Texans, Raiders (if Jacobs departs), and Cardinals are teams that should pursue the dual-back. Ravens a dark horse as well. Many options. As there is for some of the other available backs. It's quite a loaded market. Three of the league's twelve 1K rushers hit the market including two of the top five. The excitement to see where these guys land is at a high.
I broke down some of the top names by four different tiers: Highest Bidders, Silent Steals, Don't Over-Pay, and Needs the Right Fit. The tiers should be quite self-explanatory. Now we get critical. No time to waste; lets roll.
Highest Bidders:
Many players should have quite the list of bidders during this free-agency if they survive being tagged, but four guys shine the brightest: DT Chris Jones, Edge Josh Allen, DT Justin Madubuike, and S Antoine Winfield Jr. All four are defensive studs. I would be stunned if the Chiefs let Chris Jones walk, but if they do, then Jones becomes the top get for any and all 31. Jones is one of the most valuable players in the league, which says a lot for a DT. As destructive a force of any defender in the league, adding Jones to a front-seven creates an automatic power-card for a defense to play. His value has been proven time and time again.
Josh Allen being available is wild after the season he had. If Jaguars don't tag him, or can't retain him, then someone can add a top-5 defensive player in the league. If I have to explain myself on Allen, then you all didn't watch much ball last season. A breakout year should result in quite the contract after posting 17.5 sacks and 17 TFL. Allen is a big time get. One of the most versatile game-wreckers on defense, Allen could get even better as we look at his early-career progression. Without a doubt one of the best gets in a loaded market. Justin Madubuike and Winfield Jr. apply to that as well. Both guys can elevate any defense, and I know there are several teams who look for safety help that have wide open eyes when coming across Winfield Jr's name. He should have a large amount of interest across the league. Baltimore is likely to tag Madubuike, but if something changes, then he is a top available free agent after his breakout year.
Silent Steals:
You have the big dawgs up top like Chris Jones and Josh Allen who get all the intention, but there are some real silent gems on the market that go under the radar. Gems that may not cost too much coin, creating possible diamonds in the rough. I think of these six guys as silent steals for teams lookin' for a solid piece:
DE Bryce Huff
S Xavier McKinney
G Jonah Jackson
WR Michael Pittman Jr.
DE Jonathan Greenard
S Kamren Curl
Bryce Huff is the shiniest gem of the six, and it's a shame he doesn't get recognition as a top free agent. Huff was stellar for the Jets in '23 as he broke out for a career year. He has only gotten better and better the more reps he gets. Huff won't be too expensive; and he's a player that looks for more responsibilities. A similar guy on the market is Johnathan Greenard, whom had a breakout season of his own in Houston for DeMeco Ryans.
Both Huff and Greenard had Pro Bowl caliber seasons, are young, and progress well under the right fit. I would hope the Texans are players for Greenard, rather a tag or extension, but hitting open market will allow other teams to scoop up a highly productive end. I don't think either player will cost a team much. Both can be huge pieces to a championship contending team. I think the same for the other four on my list. Jonah Jackson is one of the best available offensive lineman and won't cost too much coin. Safeties Kamren Curl and Xavier McKinney may not jump off the paper in appeal, but they have been solid pros and bolster many DB rooms rather you are looking for depth or consistently decent production on the back end. McKinney still is just 2/4 on playing a full season, but he has shown to be a productive top-20 safety. Curl is a bit more reliable with same level production. Both guys are sharp tacklers who don't miss much. I like both players, if you need a safety, but don't want to spend the type of coin that Winfield Jr. will request, then McKinney or Curl is a great choice. Silent steals if you pay right.
Needs The Right Fit:
Many of the free agents available have the potential to be great, or bad for a new team. It simply depends on the fit, scheme, or current coaching. There is five obvious players that fall in that boat (many others too): QB Kirk Cousins, QB Baker Mayfield, RB Saquon Barkley, LB Devin White, and LB Patrick Queen. The boat is an automatic tier designation for 98% of the league's quarterbacks in 2024. Cousins and Mayfield are no exception. Mayfield shouldn't leave Tampa Bay, he has a sure-fire fit there and the team wants him to return. Cousins is interesting. Minnesota should be adamant on bringing him back. They can't afford another project QB with the roster they have. If they let Cousins walk, then they should trade Justin Jefferson and start the rebuild over again. Bringing Cousins back and working around their $40M cap space is the only option they have if they want to be a playoff contender next season. If Cousins does walk, then he has to go somewhere that is a good fit in order to have any further success in his career. That list is slim.
Minnesota is at the top, no doubt. I think Tennessee is a solid route with new head coach Brian Callahan under the realm. Not saying ditch Will Levis; not in the slightest. A one-year deal to bring Cousins in for D-Hop and to coach/help develop Levis is a solid option. Atlanta as a dark force has some appeal as well. It's going to be interesting to see where Cousins lands for next season. Success wise, it sure will depend on the right fit. Linebackers Devin White and Patrick Queen are no different on the other side of the ball. Personally, I think Queen needs to stay in Baltimore alongside Roquan Smith & Devin White needs to leave Tampa Bay for a better fit. If by chance the Ravens and Queen part ways, he can be a great get for a team that suits his scheme. Seahawks could be a match with Queen's former DC Mike Macdonald now the head coach in Seattle.
Don't Overpay:
We have some flashy names hittin' the market. Guys that may ask for a large chunk of coin, at that. To the teams that have plenty of cap space available, please be advise and be wise. Just because you have money to spend, doesn't mean you should spend it stupidly. For example, the RB market will be the most wanting to ask for some cash- spending a ton on a Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley isn't a smart decision for a team middle of the pack in cap space. They can be a big piece, but you gotta whole puzzle to build. Spend wisely.
Teams won't just be lured in to overpay the star-studded RB market, the likes of Chase Young, Brian Burns, Mike Evans, and Xavien Howard are all guys that I can see teams overpaying for. I don't recommend it. Evans has been sure-fire his entire career. As reliable and consistently good that a receiver can be, but he is aging and nearing the end of his prime. Same for Xavien Howard. Burns is going to ask for $30Ms annually per, for a length of 4-6 years. I think those demands are far too high, but I can see a team paying it. Bears or Commanders would. I wouldn't. I see him as an overpay waiting to happen.
Even a guy like Jaylon Johnson should be considered a potential overpay. It's always risky to extend a guy long-term with guaranteed money after one high level season. With a tag of $19.8M, I see no reason to extend him right away, despite good will. Tag him and assure he can back up his stellar season. Reduce the gamble and create clarification. Have to play the business game. Sorry to cut it. Extending Jaylon Johnson long term after one season is NOT the best choice when you have a franchise tag you can utilize.
We have a big next couple of months coming up in the front offices across the NFL. For several teams, this is a pivotal off-season. It's time to get to work. What teams need to be players? What teams need to get active? I have a few in mind. Back to the tiers.
Who Should Be Players:
Several teams should be active during this off-season, but I have three in particular that I think should be major players- the Colts, Texans, and Rams. All three sit in the top-12 for available cap space, have holes to fill, and plans to improve, especially the Rams and Texans-who fell short in the playoffs. I feel all three should make a variety of moves to keep building.
Rams are in a great spot when you consider they don't have many impending free agents and have $43M in cap space available to spend. They fell oh-so short in the playoffs against the Lions in Detroit; with Stafford's window closing every year, the Rams need to bolster the roster this free agency with some big holes in the secondary and linebacker room. Get help around Ernest Jones and Ahkello Witherspoon. There is a slew of solid defensive backs available. Even if it cost some of that $43M coin, make it happen. Kamren Curl is a solid get for LA, or Jayron Kearse, Darnell Savage- obviously. Tons of guys are available. Spend a little and build some roster depth.
Texans had last season to prove that they have the potential, now they need to spend and maximize it. Houston has $70M in cap space and has a stud-quarterback, a great young coach, and newfound vibes that will attract key free agents in the off-season. Exploit it. Holding the 27th pick in the draft should put a kick in their step in free agency. Let's not forget, there is a chance they let Jonathan Greenard test free agency. Losing his production from last season is noticeable. Resigning him should be a key motive. Texans also need to bolster the safety and LB rooms. Steven Nelson and Denzel Perryman's contracts are up, plus the depth is weak. They also have starting running-back Devin Singletary hittin' free agency and starting tight-end Dalton Schultz. Either need to re-sign them, or replace them. That $70M is huge. Houston has to build off what they started last season.
The actions of the Texans will certainly force the Colts to be players. Indy needs to be players regardless. Anthony Richardson showed early that he has potential to be worth something as a starting QB. They have $73M in cap space to build around him. Colts have the same agenda as the Texans- build the DB and LB rooms. With Julian Blackmon and Kenny Moore II hittin' free agency; the secondary in Indy will look very weak. Big time focus there and on the other side of the ball as they may have to replace number-one receiver Michael Pittman Jr. Richardson needed weapons before having to replace two in Pittman Jr. and Zack Moss. Now they need to fill holes and bolster on top of it. Indy needs to be on the gas pedal in free agency.
Get Busy:
Five teams have pivotal off-seasons ahead: Chargers, Bears, Bucs, Ravens, and even the defending champion Chiefs. Chargers have one of the trickier agendas ahead as they are 29th in cap space with $-25M. Tough decisions will be made in the coming weeks, two big ones in particular: releasing/trading Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Chargers would save over $37.6M in droppin' those two contracts. It's gotta be done. Both should be in trades to get some assets back. Bolts also should look into gettin' rid of Mike Williams' contract- bumping the total saved to over $57M. Bringing in Jim Harbaugh and an All-Star coaching staff is great and all, but they still need to revamp the roster. Chargers need CB, RB, TE, OL, and WR depth, but don't have any money. Changing that will result in difficult decisions. No rest for the wicked. The time to build around Harbaugh and Justin Herbert is now. Get to work Joe Hortiz.
Ravens and Chiefs are in the same boat. They both must pay or replace major pieces. Kansas City has Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed, while the Ravens have Justin Madubuike (likely tag), Patrick Queen, Kevin Zeitler, and Geno Stone. Ravens have more importance with the loss of their coordinators on top of all the impending free agents, but the Chiefs possibly losing Sneed and/or Jones can't be taken lightly. Both front offices will be busy this off-season as they each look to return to the AFC Championship (and so on).
Bears' GM Ryan Poles will be extra busy this off-season. So will the Bucs' Jason Licht. Bears hold the number-one pick and $79M in cap space. To those calling for them to ditch Justin Fields for any rookie QB, you are idiotic. They must understand his potential and build around it with the glorious off-season they are given. They start by taggin' Jaylon Johnson, then they get ACTIVE in free agency. Last season was a big first step in adding DJ Moore and T.J. Edwards. Now they need to bolster the DB room and get more weapons on offense. I wouldn't mind seeing them be active in landing a top guy like Winfield Jr. or Saquon Barkley. Or landing them both. Bringing in a receiver like Tyler Boyd or Michael Pittman Jr. is a good route as well. Build! Regarding the first pick; they need to bait it hard. Sonny Weaver bait that thang. They don't even need to move back far in the draft, moving a few spots can land them some assets. See if the Falcons or Patriots want Caleb Williams and are willing to jump over the Commanders for him. They can drop to 3 or 8 and draft a top prospect. Moving to three and drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. isn't a bad route. The young stud-wideout has a relationship built already with Fields with being OSU alum. Lots of business to do in Chicago, just like for Licht in Tampa Bay.
Buccaneers have a pivotal off-season. Pivotal. The impending free agents they have is one of the toughest list in the league. A list that includes eight starters, Baker Mayfield, their best player Antoine Winfield Jr, and the two faces of the franchise for the past decade in Mike Evans and Lavonte David. Bucs also just released Shaquil Barrett. They have $43M to work with. It could be a whole new look in Tampa Bay next season. Retaining Baker Mayfield is the first to-do. They need to make it clear that money is tight, give him some solid incentives and call it a day. I then think they need to pay Winfield Jr. The relationship is built- maybe that could help save a few bucks. Losing him on top of all the others would make a follow trip to the playoffs a tough task. Licht is going to have to make the most out of this off-season.
Things are about to kick up in a big way behind the scenes of the gridiron. The next coming days will determine the free agent market. Will Jaylon Johnson and Justin Madubuike be tagged? Josh Allen? The excitement is real; the deadline is set; and the countdown is on. Circle the dates March 5th & March 13th. Deadline to tag & market gates open. Two more weeks and hopefully all hell breaks loose. Two more weeks and the free agent fight is on!
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